摘要:本报告基于青柠量化历史行情数据,对「SAR抛物线趋势跟踪」策略进行了批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest),回测区间 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31,覆盖 5534 只标的,成功回测 5534 只,其中产生交易的标的 4928 只。平均收益率 +0.16%,胜率 44.6%,最优标的 003018.SZ(+21.33%),最差标的 688496.SH。以下为完整核心指标、统计检验、策略逻辑与标的排行,仅供策略研究与教学参考,不构成任何投资建议。
一、核心指标一览
| 指标 |
数值 |
指标 |
数值 |
| 回测标的总数 |
5534 |
成功回测数 |
5534 |
| 产生交易标的数 |
4928 |
回测失败数 |
0 |
| 平均收益率 |
+0.16% |
胜率 |
44.6% |
| 盈利标的数 |
2199 |
亏损标的数 |
2729 |
| 最优标的 |
003018.SZ |
最差标的 |
688496.SH |
| 初始资金(单标的) |
¥100,000.00 |
耗时 |
35.7s |
二、回测参数
| 参数 |
值 |
| 策略名称 |
SAR抛物线趋势跟踪 |
| 回测模式 |
批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest) |
| 回测区间 |
2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31 |
| 标的总数 |
5534 |
| 初始资金(单标的) |
¥100,000.00 |
三、策略逻辑
策略名称:SAR抛物线趋势跟踪
{
"strategy_name": "SAR抛物线趋势跟踪",
"strategy_type": "quant",
"version": "1.0",
"meta": {
"category": "trend",
"level": "beginner"
},
"components": {
"indicators": [
{
"id": "sar_1",
"type": "sar",
"name": "SAR",
"parameters": {
"acceleration": 0.02,
"maximum": 0.2
}
}
],
"conditions": [
{
"id": "cond_1",
"type": "cross_over",
"name": "价格上穿SAR转多",
"parameters": {
"fast_line": "Close",
"slow_line": "sar_1"
}
},
{
"id": "cond_2",
"type": "cross_under",
"name": "价格下穿SAR转空",
"parameters": {
"fast_line": "Close",
"slow_line": "sar_1"
}
}
],
"logics": [],
"signals": {
"entry": {
"id": "entry_1",
"type": "signal_entry",
"name": "转多入场",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "cond_1"
}
},
"exit": {
"id": "exit_1",
"type": "signal_exit",
"name": "转空出场",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "cond_2"
}
}
},
"position_strategies": [
{
"id": "pos_1",
"type": "position_fixed",
"name": "固定仓位",
"parameters": {
"position_pct": 0.2,
"stop_loss_pct": 6,
"take_profit_pct": 20
}
}
]
}
}
四、统计显著性检验(Reality Check)
策略整体评级:C(一般可信度(部分指标显著,建议扩大样本)),基于 4928 只标的的横截面统计。
| 检验项 |
结果 |
统计量 |
结论 |
| 截面胜率(二项检验) |
44.62%(2199/4928) |
p=1.0000 |
未显著优于随机 |
| 平均收益(t 检验) |
+0.16% |
t=3.05, p=0.0011 |
均值显著大于零 |
| 平均夏普(t 检验) |
-0.14 |
t=-9.00, p=1.0000 |
风险调整收益不显著 |
收益分布(横截面分位数):
| P5 |
P25 |
中位数 |
P75 |
P95 |
尾部风险(最差10%均值) |
| -4.81% |
-2.26% |
-0.59% |
+2.33% |
+6.68% |
-5.18% |
五、标的收益排行
5.1 收益 Top 15
| 排名 |
标的 |
收益率 |
夏普比率 |
最大回撤 |
胜率 |
交易次数 |
| 1 |
003018.SZ |
+21.33% |
2.81 |
3.12% |
66.7% |
6 |
| 2 |
920699.BJ |
+20.56% |
2.10 |
1.67% |
100.0% |
2 |
| 3 |
300063.SZ |
+19.32% |
2.64 |
2.40% |
100.0% |
4 |
| 4 |
600792.SH |
+18.10% |
2.47 |
3.39% |
75.0% |
8 |
| 5 |
603959.SH |
+16.67% |
2.06 |
5.31% |
66.7% |
9 |
| 6 |
002445.SZ |
+16.59% |
2.32 |
2.32% |
100.0% |
3 |
| 7 |
000767.SZ |
+16.52% |
2.75 |
2.03% |
75.0% |
4 |
| 8 |
920670.BJ |
+16.46% |
1.75 |
3.58% |
50.0% |
4 |
| 9 |
603843.SH |
+16.34% |
2.04 |
6.20% |
54.5% |
11 |
| 10 |
002289.SZ |
+15.87% |
2.35 |
4.48% |
46.2% |
13 |
| 11 |
603311.SH |
+15.29% |
2.77 |
2.70% |
100.0% |
3 |
| 12 |
002364.SZ |
+15.14% |
2.87 |
0.95% |
75.0% |
4 |
| 13 |
600429.SH |
+14.90% |
2.54 |
1.90% |
100.0% |
3 |
| 14 |
920199.BJ |
+14.75% |
1.46 |
1.92% |
66.7% |
3 |
| 15 |
920493.BJ |
+14.62% |
2.09 |
2.93% |
85.7% |
7 |
5.2 收益 Bottom 10
| 排名 |
标的 |
收益率 |
夏普比率 |
最大回撤 |
胜率 |
交易次数 |
| 1 |
688496.SH |
-12.33% |
-1.46 |
14.60% |
25.0% |
8 |
| 2 |
002694.SZ |
-10.67% |
-1.53 |
15.46% |
11.1% |
9 |
| 3 |
603359.SH |
-9.92% |
-1.55 |
11.60% |
9.1% |
11 |
| 4 |
603278.SH |
-9.70% |
-2.30 |
10.69% |
0.0% |
8 |
| 5 |
000610.SZ |
-9.56% |
-1.68 |
11.19% |
0.0% |
6 |
| 6 |
000632.SZ |
-9.28% |
-1.61 |
11.85% |
12.5% |
8 |
| 7 |
002691.SZ |
-9.17% |
-2.14 |
9.35% |
0.0% |
6 |
| 8 |
002542.SZ |
-9.04% |
-1.40 |
13.24% |
16.7% |
12 |
| 9 |
600481.SH |
-8.93% |
-2.17 |
10.50% |
0.0% |
8 |
| 10 |
920489.BJ |
-8.81% |
-1.59 |
9.75% |
11.1% |
9 |
六、风险提示与免责声明
本报告所有数据均基于历史行情的量化回测结果,不包含未来数据,亦未考虑极端行情、流动性冲击、政策变化等不可预见因素。历史业绩不代表未来表现,回测结果与实盘交易之间可能存在滑点、手续费、成交延迟等差异。本报告仅用于策略研究与教学交流,不构成任何投资建议,据此操作风险自负。