摘要:本报告基于青柠量化历史行情数据,对「双均线+RSI过滤」策略进行了批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest),回测区间 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31,覆盖 5534 只标的,成功回测 5534 只,其中产生交易的标的 5180 只。平均收益率 +0.34%,胜率 49.1%,最优标的 300816.SZ(+19.68%),最差标的 601588.SH。以下为完整核心指标、统计检验、策略逻辑与标的排行,仅供策略研究与教学参考,不构成任何投资建议。
一、核心指标一览
| 指标 | 数值 | 指标 | 数值 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 回测标的总数 | 5534 | 成功回测数 | 5534 |
| 产生交易标的数 | 5180 | 回测失败数 | 0 |
| 平均收益率 | +0.34% | 胜率 | 49.1% |
| 盈利标的数 | 2542 | 亏损标的数 | 2638 |
| 最优标的 | 300816.SZ | 最差标的 | 601588.SH |
| 初始资金(单标的) | ¥100,000.00 | 耗时 | 36.0s |
二、回测参数
| 参数 | 值 |
|---|---|
| 策略名称 | 双均线+RSI过滤 |
| 回测模式 | 批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest) |
| 回测区间 | 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31 |
| 标的总数 | 5534 |
| 初始资金(单标的) | ¥100,000.00 |
三、策略逻辑
策略名称:双均线+RSI过滤
{
"strategy_name": "双均线+RSI过滤",
"strategy_type": "quant",
"version": "1.0",
"meta": {
"category": "combo",
"level": "intermediate"
},
"components": {
"indicators": [
{
"id": "ma5_1",
"type": "ma",
"name": "MA5",
"parameters": {
"period": 5
}
},
{
"id": "ma20_1",
"type": "ma",
"name": "MA20",
"parameters": {
"period": 20
}
},
{
"id": "rsi_1",
"type": "rsi",
"name": "RSI14",
"parameters": {
"period": 14
}
}
],
"conditions": [
{
"id": "cond_1",
"type": "cross_over",
"name": "金叉",
"parameters": {
"fast_line": "ma5_1",
"slow_line": "ma20_1"
}
},
{
"id": "cond_2",
"type": "cond_threshold",
"name": "RSI未超买(<70)",
"parameters": {
"indicator": "rsi_1",
"threshold_type": "below",
"value1": 70
}
},
{
"id": "cond_3",
"type": "cross_under",
"name": "死叉卖出",
"parameters": {
"fast_line": "ma5_1",
"slow_line": "ma20_1"
}
}
],
"logics": [
{
"id": "logic_1",
"type": "logic_and",
"name": "金叉且未超买",
"parameters": {
"input_conditions": [
"cond_1",
"cond_2"
]
}
}
],
"signals": {
"entry": {
"id": "entry_1",
"type": "signal_entry",
"name": "入场信号",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "logic_1"
}
},
"exit": {
"id": "exit_1",
"type": "signal_exit",
"name": "出场信号",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "cond_3"
}
}
},
"position_strategies": [
{
"id": "pos_1",
"type": "position_fixed",
"name": "固定仓位",
"parameters": {
"position_pct": 0.2,
"stop_loss_pct": 6,
"take_profit_pct": 16
}
}
]
}
}
四、统计显著性检验(Reality Check)
策略整体评级:C(一般可信度(部分指标显著,建议扩大样本)),基于 5180 只标的的横截面统计。
| 检验项 | 结果 | 统计量 | 结论 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 截面胜率(二项检验) | 49.07%(2542/5180) | p=0.9089 | 未显著优于随机 |
| 平均收益(t 检验) | +0.34% | t=6.14, p=0.0000 | 均值显著大于零 |
| 平均夏普(t 检验) | -0.04 | t=-2.46, p=1.0000 | 风险调整收益不显著 |
收益分布(横截面分位数):
| P5 | P25 | 中位数 | P75 | P95 | 尾部风险(最差10%均值) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.52% | -2.46% | -0.09% | +2.85% | +7.46% | -5.88% |
五、标的收益排行
5.1 收益 Top 15
| 排名 | 标的 | 收益率 | 夏普比率 | 最大回撤 | 胜率 | 交易次数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 300816.SZ | +19.68% | 2.36 | 2.56% | 71.4% | 7 |
| 2 | 688479.SH | +18.81% | 2.56 | 1.47% | 80.0% | 5 |
| 3 | 603938.SH | +17.92% | 2.64 | 1.76% | 80.0% | 5 |
| 4 | 300540.SZ | +17.08% | 2.29 | 1.95% | 71.4% | 7 |
| 5 | 600961.SH | +16.73% | 2.53 | 2.63% | 66.7% | 6 |
| 6 | 003018.SZ | +16.59% | 2.63 | 3.07% | 50.0% | 8 |
| 7 | 688380.SH | +16.47% | 2.16 | 2.11% | 66.7% | 6 |
| 8 | 002297.SZ | +16.35% | 2.51 | 2.97% | 71.4% | 7 |
| 9 | 301158.SZ | +16.31% | 1.95 | 2.09% | 57.1% | 7 |
| 10 | 920225.BJ | +15.76% | 2.39 | 0.99% | 100.0% | 4 |
| 11 | 688548.SH | +15.64% | 2.55 | 1.12% | 100.0% | 5 |
| 12 | 688227.SH | +15.61% | 2.27 | 1.13% | 85.7% | 7 |
| 13 | 688206.SH | +15.15% | 2.44 | 1.10% | 66.7% | 6 |
| 14 | 002256.SZ | +14.93% | 2.64 | 2.57% | 62.5% | 8 |
| 15 | 603936.SH | +14.88% | 3.00 | 0.83% | 71.4% | 7 |
5.2 收益 Bottom 10
| 排名 | 标的 | 收益率 | 夏普比率 | 最大回撤 | 胜率 | 交易次数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 601588.SH | -10.70% | -2.10 | 12.67% | 16.7% | 12 |
| 2 | 301139.SZ | -10.54% | -1.91 | 11.67% | 14.3% | 7 |
| 3 | 603363.SH | -10.29% | -2.42 | 11.54% | 12.5% | 8 |
| 4 | 002225.SZ | -10.27% | -2.31 | 10.35% | 16.7% | 6 |
| 5 | 002314.SZ | -10.23% | -2.58 | 11.06% | 10.0% | 10 |
| 6 | 300651.SZ | -9.97% | -1.73 | 10.05% | 8.3% | 12 |
| 7 | 688148.SH | -9.96% | -2.71 | 10.99% | 11.1% | 9 |
| 8 | 600475.SH | -9.93% | -1.99 | 11.06% | 0.0% | 11 |
| 9 | 002427.SZ | -9.78% | -2.03 | 10.99% | 0.0% | 8 |
| 10 | 920571.BJ | -9.77% | -2.91 | 9.77% | 0.0% | 11 |
六、风险提示与免责声明
本报告所有数据均基于历史行情的量化回测结果,不包含未来数据,亦未考虑极端行情、流动性冲击、政策变化等不可预见因素。历史业绩不代表未来表现,回测结果与实盘交易之间可能存在滑点、手续费、成交延迟等差异。本报告仅用于策略研究与教学交流,不构成任何投资建议,据此操作风险自负。
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