摘要:本报告基于青柠量化历史行情数据,对「均线多头排列」策略进行了批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest),回测区间 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31,覆盖 5534 只标的,成功回测 5534 只,其中产生交易的标的 5207 只。平均收益率 +0.76%,胜率 47.0%,最优标的 688146.SH(+40.79%),最差标的 600981.SH。以下为完整核心指标、统计检验、策略逻辑与标的排行,仅供策略研究与教学参考,不构成任何投资建议。
一、核心指标一览
| 指标 | 数值 | 指标 | 数值 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 回测标的总数 | 5534 | 成功回测数 | 5534 |
| 产生交易标的数 | 5207 | 回测失败数 | 0 |
| 平均收益率 | +0.76% | 胜率 | 47.0% |
| 盈利标的数 | 2446 | 亏损标的数 | 2761 |
| 最优标的 | 688146.SH | 最差标的 | 600981.SH |
| 初始资金(单标的) | ¥100,000.00 | 耗时 | 36.0s |
二、回测参数
| 参数 | 值 |
|---|---|
| 策略名称 | 均线多头排列 |
| 回测模式 | 批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest) |
| 回测区间 | 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31 |
| 标的总数 | 5534 |
| 初始资金(单标的) | ¥100,000.00 |
三、策略逻辑
策略名称:均线多头排列
{
"strategy_name": "均线多头排列",
"strategy_type": "quant",
"version": "1.0",
"meta": {
"category": "combo",
"level": "intermediate"
},
"components": {
"indicators": [
{
"id": "ma5_1",
"type": "ma",
"name": "MA5",
"parameters": {
"period": 5
}
},
{
"id": "ma10_1",
"type": "ma",
"name": "MA10",
"parameters": {
"period": 10
}
},
{
"id": "ma20_1",
"type": "ma",
"name": "MA20",
"parameters": {
"period": 20
}
}
],
"conditions": [
{
"id": "cond_1",
"type": "cond_compare",
"name": "MA5>MA10",
"parameters": {
"left_operand": "ma5_1",
"operator": ">",
"right_operand": "ma10_1"
}
},
{
"id": "cond_2",
"type": "cond_compare",
"name": "MA10>MA20",
"parameters": {
"left_operand": "ma10_1",
"operator": ">",
"right_operand": "ma20_1"
}
},
{
"id": "cond_3",
"type": "cond_rising",
"name": "MA5抬升",
"parameters": {
"indicator": "ma5_1",
"lookback": 5,
"direction": "up",
"min_pct": 0
}
}
],
"logics": [
{
"id": "logic_1",
"type": "logic_and",
"name": "多头排列且抬升",
"parameters": {
"input_conditions": [
"cond_1",
"cond_2",
"cond_3"
]
}
}
],
"signals": {
"entry": {
"id": "entry_1",
"type": "signal_entry",
"name": "入场信号",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "logic_1"
}
}
},
"position_strategies": [
{
"id": "pos_1",
"type": "position_fixed",
"name": "固定仓位",
"parameters": {
"position_pct": 0.2,
"stop_loss_pct": 6,
"take_profit_pct": 15
}
}
]
}
}
四、统计显著性检验(Reality Check)
策略整体评级:C(一般可信度(部分指标显著,建议扩大样本)),基于 5207 只标的的横截面统计。
| 检验项 | 结果 | 统计量 | 结论 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 截面胜率(二项检验) | 46.98%(2446/5207) | p=1.0000 | 未显著优于随机 |
| 平均收益(t 检验) | +0.76% | t=9.02, p=0.0000 | 均值显著大于零 |
| 平均夏普(t 检验) | -0.05 | t=-3.56, p=1.0000 | 风险调整收益不显著 |
收益分布(横截面分位数):
| P5 | P25 | 中位数 | P75 | P95 | 尾部风险(最差10%均值) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.76% | -3.25% | -0.41% | +3.41% | +12.49% | -7.21% |
五、标的收益排行
5.1 收益 Top 15
| 排名 | 标的 | 收益率 | 夏普比率 | 最大回撤 | 胜率 | 交易次数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 688146.SH | +40.79% | 3.49 | 4.89% | 68.2% | 22 |
| 2 | 301232.SZ | +38.62% | 3.39 | 4.61% | 64.7% | 17 |
| 3 | 688257.SH | +38.34% | 4.07 | 2.22% | 76.5% | 17 |
| 4 | 688387.SH | +36.43% | 2.70 | 3.69% | 63.6% | 22 |
| 5 | 301526.SZ | +35.39% | 2.22 | 6.48% | 52.9% | 34 |
| 6 | 002969.SZ | +34.73% | 3.26 | 7.92% | 58.8% | 17 |
| 7 | 688308.SH | +34.14% | 2.91 | 3.97% | 54.8% | 31 |
| 8 | 603256.SH | +33.91% | 2.73 | 7.25% | 58.8% | 34 |
| 9 | 688679.SH | +33.04% | 2.77 | 3.49% | 50.0% | 22 |
| 10 | 688125.SH | +31.56% | 3.22 | 6.76% | 76.2% | 21 |
| 11 | 603045.SH | +31.06% | 2.96 | 3.57% | 59.1% | 22 |
| 12 | 300868.SZ | +30.57% | 2.64 | 3.55% | 56.5% | 23 |
| 13 | 600397.SH | +30.23% | 3.22 | 4.23% | 65.0% | 20 |
| 14 | 002842.SZ | +29.43% | 2.69 | 6.86% | 53.8% | 26 |
| 15 | 000510.SZ | +29.28% | 2.95 | 5.96% | 61.5% | 26 |
5.2 收益 Bottom 10
| 排名 | 标的 | 收益率 | 夏普比率 | 最大回撤 | 胜率 | 交易次数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 600981.SH | -13.72% | -2.94 | 14.35% | 10.0% | 10 |
| 2 | 600800.SH | -13.55% | -2.79 | 15.25% | 0.0% | 12 |
| 3 | 600939.SH | -12.62% | -4.06 | 12.67% | 9.1% | 11 |
| 4 | 300147.SZ | -12.60% | -2.53 | 12.75% | 0.0% | 10 |
| 5 | 301089.SZ | -12.14% | -2.82 | 13.02% | 8.3% | 12 |
| 6 | 300961.SZ | -11.98% | -1.85 | 14.17% | 16.7% | 12 |
| 7 | 920832.BJ | -11.97% | -3.60 | 11.97% | 0.0% | 10 |
| 8 | 600322.SH | -11.58% | -1.86 | 12.69% | 8.3% | 12 |
| 9 | 920230.BJ | -11.47% | -2.44 | 12.64% | 0.0% | 9 |
| 10 | 002613.SZ | -11.39% | -2.01 | 11.75% | 8.3% | 12 |
六、风险提示与免责声明
本报告所有数据均基于历史行情的量化回测结果,不包含未来数据,亦未考虑极端行情、流动性冲击、政策变化等不可预见因素。历史业绩不代表未来表现,回测结果与实盘交易之间可能存在滑点、手续费、成交延迟等差异。本报告仅用于策略研究与教学交流,不构成任何投资建议,据此操作风险自负。
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