摘要:本报告基于青柠量化历史行情数据,对「EMA双线交叉」策略进行了批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest),回测区间 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31,覆盖 5534 只标的,成功回测 5534 只,其中产生交易的标的 5167 只。平均收益率 +0.41%,胜率 50.2%,最优标的 300816.SZ(+20.33%),最差标的 301139.SZ。以下为完整核心指标、统计检验、策略逻辑与标的排行,仅供策略研究与教学参考,不构成任何投资建议。
一、核心指标一览
| 指标 |
数值 |
指标 |
数值 |
| 回测标的总数 |
5534 |
成功回测数 |
5534 |
| 产生交易标的数 |
5167 |
回测失败数 |
0 |
| 平均收益率 |
+0.41% |
胜率 |
50.2% |
| 盈利标的数 |
2595 |
亏损标的数 |
2572 |
| 最优标的 |
300816.SZ |
最差标的 |
301139.SZ |
| 初始资金(单标的) |
¥100,000.00 |
耗时 |
35.7s |
二、回测参数
| 参数 |
值 |
| 策略名称 |
EMA双线交叉 |
| 回测模式 |
批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest) |
| 回测区间 |
2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31 |
| 标的总数 |
5534 |
| 初始资金(单标的) |
¥100,000.00 |
三、策略逻辑
策略名称:EMA双线交叉
{
"strategy_name": "EMA双线交叉",
"strategy_type": "quant",
"version": "1.0",
"meta": {
"category": "trend",
"level": "beginner"
},
"components": {
"indicators": [
{
"id": "ema5_1",
"type": "ema",
"name": "EMA5",
"parameters": {
"period": 5
}
},
{
"id": "ema20_1",
"type": "ema",
"name": "EMA20",
"parameters": {
"period": 20
}
}
],
"conditions": [
{
"id": "cond_1",
"type": "cross_over",
"name": "金叉买入",
"parameters": {
"fast_line": "ema5_1",
"slow_line": "ema20_1"
}
},
{
"id": "cond_2",
"type": "cross_under",
"name": "死叉卖出",
"parameters": {
"fast_line": "ema5_1",
"slow_line": "ema20_1"
}
}
],
"logics": [],
"signals": {
"entry": {
"id": "entry_1",
"type": "signal_entry",
"name": "入场信号",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "cond_1"
}
},
"exit": {
"id": "exit_1",
"type": "signal_exit",
"name": "出场信号",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "cond_2"
}
}
},
"position_strategies": [
{
"id": "pos_1",
"type": "position_fixed",
"name": "固定仓位",
"parameters": {
"position_pct": 0.2,
"stop_loss_pct": 6,
"take_profit_pct": 15
}
}
]
}
}
四、统计显著性检验(Reality Check)
策略整体评级:C(一般可信度(部分指标显著,建议扩大样本)),基于 5167 只标的的横截面统计。
| 检验项 |
结果 |
统计量 |
结论 |
| 截面胜率(二项检验) |
50.22%(2595/5167) |
p=0.3745 |
未显著优于随机 |
| 平均收益(t 检验) |
+0.41% |
t=7.35, p=0.0000 |
均值显著大于零 |
| 平均夏普(t 检验) |
-0.01 |
t=-0.65, p=1.0000 |
风险调整收益不显著 |
收益分布(横截面分位数):
| P5 |
P25 |
中位数 |
P75 |
P95 |
尾部风险(最差10%均值) |
| -5.41% |
-2.43% |
+0.02% |
+2.87% |
+7.56% |
-5.74% |
五、标的收益排行
5.1 收益 Top 15
| 排名 |
标的 |
收益率 |
夏普比率 |
最大回撤 |
胜率 |
交易次数 |
| 1 |
300816.SZ |
+20.33% |
2.43 |
2.27% |
62.5% |
8 |
| 2 |
688361.SH |
+18.02% |
3.32 |
1.48% |
100.0% |
6 |
| 3 |
600961.SH |
+17.91% |
3.01 |
3.85% |
62.5% |
8 |
| 4 |
603938.SH |
+17.15% |
2.73 |
1.74% |
100.0% |
3 |
| 5 |
603257.SH |
+17.03% |
3.17 |
1.29% |
85.7% |
7 |
| 6 |
688689.SH |
+15.70% |
2.27 |
3.19% |
50.0% |
8 |
| 7 |
002490.SZ |
+15.37% |
2.24 |
2.24% |
71.4% |
7 |
| 8 |
603221.SH |
+14.76% |
2.16 |
4.07% |
55.6% |
9 |
| 9 |
002297.SZ |
+14.74% |
2.48 |
2.85% |
71.4% |
7 |
| 10 |
001330.SZ |
+14.69% |
2.49 |
2.46% |
83.3% |
6 |
| 11 |
600206.SH |
+14.62% |
3.02 |
0.80% |
66.7% |
9 |
| 12 |
300943.SZ |
+14.33% |
2.21 |
1.67% |
83.3% |
6 |
| 13 |
601020.SH |
+14.00% |
2.58 |
4.44% |
71.4% |
7 |
| 14 |
000518.SZ |
+13.84% |
2.46 |
1.79% |
55.6% |
9 |
| 15 |
688433.SH |
+13.64% |
2.24 |
2.04% |
71.4% |
7 |
5.2 收益 Bottom 10
| 排名 |
标的 |
收益率 |
夏普比率 |
最大回撤 |
胜率 |
交易次数 |
| 1 |
301139.SZ |
-12.07% |
-2.26 |
12.07% |
0.0% |
8 |
| 2 |
300730.SZ |
-11.04% |
-1.65 |
12.80% |
18.2% |
11 |
| 3 |
920665.BJ |
-10.85% |
-2.85 |
11.90% |
0.0% |
12 |
| 4 |
300266.SZ |
-9.93% |
-3.72 |
9.93% |
0.0% |
12 |
| 5 |
301127.SZ |
-9.71% |
-2.31 |
9.71% |
9.1% |
11 |
| 6 |
002084.SZ |
-9.66% |
-2.01 |
9.76% |
0.0% |
9 |
| 7 |
920832.BJ |
-9.65% |
-3.11 |
9.70% |
0.0% |
9 |
| 8 |
920198.BJ |
-9.60% |
-2.59 |
9.66% |
0.0% |
11 |
| 9 |
605277.SH |
-9.51% |
-2.43 |
9.51% |
8.3% |
12 |
| 10 |
002370.SZ |
-9.21% |
-2.70 |
9.21% |
0.0% |
8 |
六、风险提示与免责声明
本报告所有数据均基于历史行情的量化回测结果,不包含未来数据,亦未考虑极端行情、流动性冲击、政策变化等不可预见因素。历史业绩不代表未来表现,回测结果与实盘交易之间可能存在滑点、手续费、成交延迟等差异。本报告仅用于策略研究与教学交流,不构成任何投资建议,据此操作风险自负。