摘要:本报告基于青柠量化历史行情数据,对「量价齐升」策略进行了批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest),回测区间 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31,覆盖 5534 只标的,成功回测 5534 只,其中产生交易的标的 5183 只。平均收益率 +0.38%,胜率 46.7%,最优标的 603938.SH(+28.11%),最差标的 002072.SZ。以下为完整核心指标、统计检验、策略逻辑与标的排行,仅供策略研究与教学参考,不构成任何投资建议。
一、核心指标一览
| 指标 | 数值 | 指标 | 数值 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 回测标的总数 | 5534 | 成功回测数 | 5534 |
| 产生交易标的数 | 5183 | 回测失败数 | 0 |
| 平均收益率 | +0.38% | 胜率 | 46.7% |
| 盈利标的数 | 2421 | 亏损标的数 | 2762 |
| 最优标的 | 603938.SH | 最差标的 | 002072.SZ |
| 初始资金(单标的) | ¥100,000.00 | 耗时 | 35.9s |
二、回测参数
| 参数 | 值 |
|---|---|
| 策略名称 | 量价齐升 |
| 回测模式 | 批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest) |
| 回测区间 | 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31 |
| 标的总数 | 5534 |
| 初始资金(单标的) | ¥100,000.00 |
三、策略逻辑
策略名称:量价齐升
{
"strategy_name": "量价齐升",
"strategy_type": "quant",
"version": "1.0",
"meta": {
"category": "volume",
"level": "intermediate"
},
"components": {
"indicators": [
{
"id": "ma20_1",
"type": "ma",
"name": "MA20",
"parameters": {
"period": 20
}
},
{
"id": "vol_avg_1",
"type": "vol",
"name": "均量20",
"parameters": {
"period": 20
}
},
{
"id": "rsi_1",
"type": "rsi",
"name": "RSI14",
"parameters": {
"period": 14
}
}
],
"conditions": [
{
"id": "cond_1",
"type": "cond_compare",
"name": "收盘站上MA20",
"parameters": {
"left_operand": "Close",
"operator": ">",
"right_operand": "ma20_1"
}
},
{
"id": "cond_2",
"type": "cond_compare",
"name": "量能放大1.5倍",
"parameters": {
"left_operand": "Volume",
"operator": ">",
"right_operand": "vol_avg_1",
"right_multiplier": 1.5
}
},
{
"id": "cond_3",
"type": "cond_threshold",
"name": "RSI未超买(<75)",
"parameters": {
"indicator": "rsi_1",
"threshold_type": "below",
"value1": 75
}
}
],
"logics": [
{
"id": "logic_1",
"type": "logic_and",
"name": "量价齐升且未超买",
"parameters": {
"input_conditions": [
"cond_1",
"cond_2",
"cond_3"
]
}
}
],
"signals": {
"entry": {
"id": "entry_1",
"type": "signal_entry",
"name": "入场信号",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "logic_1"
}
}
},
"position_strategies": [
{
"id": "pos_1",
"type": "position_fixed",
"name": "固定仓位",
"parameters": {
"position_pct": 0.2,
"stop_loss_pct": 6,
"take_profit_pct": 12
}
}
]
}
}
四、统计显著性检验(Reality Check)
策略整体评级:C(一般可信度(部分指标显著,建议扩大样本)),基于 5183 只标的的横截面统计。
| 检验项 | 结果 | 统计量 | 结论 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 截面胜率(二项检验) | 46.71%(2421/5183) | p=1.0000 | 未显著优于随机 |
| 平均收益(t 检验) | +0.38% | t=5.61, p=0.0000 | 均值显著大于零 |
| 平均夏普(t 检验) | -0.05 | t=-3.19, p=1.0000 | 风险调整收益不显著 |
收益分布(横截面分位数):
| P5 | P25 | 中位数 | P75 | P95 | 尾部风险(最差10%均值) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.31% | -2.91% | -0.39% | +3.17% | +9.36% | -6.69% |
五、标的收益排行
5.1 收益 Top 15
| 排名 | 标的 | 收益率 | 夏普比率 | 最大回撤 | 胜率 | 交易次数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 603938.SH | +28.11% | 3.01 | 1.96% | 71.4% | 14 |
| 2 | 688227.SH | +26.31% | 2.43 | 2.30% | 53.8% | 13 |
| 3 | 603580.SH | +22.28% | 2.72 | 5.60% | 64.3% | 14 |
| 4 | 002824.SZ | +20.45% | 2.84 | 3.53% | 72.7% | 11 |
| 5 | 600397.SH | +20.39% | 3.63 | 1.16% | 80.0% | 10 |
| 6 | 600330.SH | +20.04% | 2.82 | 2.50% | 71.4% | 14 |
| 7 | 001258.SZ | +19.94% | 2.52 | 1.89% | 81.8% | 11 |
| 8 | 603203.SH | +19.51% | 3.28 | 1.67% | 75.0% | 12 |
| 9 | 688352.SH | +19.43% | 2.80 | 2.24% | 77.8% | 9 |
| 10 | 605358.SH | +18.54% | 2.88 | 2.69% | 75.0% | 12 |
| 11 | 600989.SH | +18.53% | 3.19 | 2.13% | 77.8% | 9 |
| 12 | 300191.SZ | +18.21% | 2.41 | 2.83% | 61.5% | 13 |
| 13 | 301526.SZ | +18.02% | 2.02 | 2.85% | 66.7% | 12 |
| 14 | 603261.SH | +17.90% | 2.60 | 2.26% | 72.7% | 11 |
| 15 | 002217.SZ | +17.37% | 2.19 | 3.26% | 53.8% | 13 |
5.2 收益 Bottom 10
| 排名 | 标的 | 收益率 | 夏普比率 | 最大回撤 | 胜率 | 交易次数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 002072.SZ | -13.76% | -2.46 | 13.76% | 6.7% | 15 |
| 2 | 603159.SH | -12.92% | -2.88 | 12.97% | 8.3% | 12 |
| 3 | 920075.BJ | -12.08% | -3.22 | 12.13% | 8.3% | 12 |
| 4 | 600322.SH | -11.24% | -2.01 | 13.11% | 9.1% | 11 |
| 5 | 301168.SZ | -11.21% | -2.35 | 11.92% | 8.3% | 12 |
| 6 | 300651.SZ | -11.11% | -1.73 | 11.11% | 26.7% | 15 |
| 7 | 920351.BJ | -10.91% | -1.73 | 11.43% | 15.4% | 13 |
| 8 | 920230.BJ | -10.88% | -2.26 | 12.06% | 16.7% | 12 |
| 9 | 600810.SH | -10.77% | -2.03 | 13.12% | 11.1% | 9 |
| 10 | 920770.BJ | -10.60% | -2.41 | 12.12% | 14.3% | 14 |
六、风险提示与免责声明
本报告所有数据均基于历史行情的量化回测结果,不包含未来数据,亦未考虑极端行情、流动性冲击、政策变化等不可预见因素。历史业绩不代表未来表现,回测结果与实盘交易之间可能存在滑点、手续费、成交延迟等差异。本报告仅用于策略研究与教学交流,不构成任何投资建议,据此操作风险自负。
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