摘要:本报告基于青柠量化历史行情数据,对「BIAS乖离率超跌反弹」策略进行了批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest),回测区间 2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31,覆盖 5534 只标的,成功回测 5534 只,其中产生交易的标的 4372 只。平均收益率 -0.07%,胜率 44.1%,最优标的 300626.SZ(+18.61%),最差标的 002731.SZ。以下为完整核心指标、统计检验、策略逻辑与标的排行,仅供策略研究与教学参考,不构成任何投资建议。
一、核心指标一览
| 指标 |
数值 |
指标 |
数值 |
| 回测标的总数 |
5534 |
成功回测数 |
5534 |
| 产生交易标的数 |
4372 |
回测失败数 |
0 |
| 平均收益率 |
-0.07% |
胜率 |
44.1% |
| 盈利标的数 |
1928 |
亏损标的数 |
2444 |
| 最优标的 |
300626.SZ |
最差标的 |
002731.SZ |
| 初始资金(单标的) |
¥100,000.00 |
耗时 |
35.9s |
二、回测参数
| 参数 |
值 |
| 策略名称 |
BIAS乖离率超跌反弹 |
| 回测模式 |
批量单标的独立回测(Batch Backtest) |
| 回测区间 |
2025-07-31 至 2026-07-31 |
| 标的总数 |
5534 |
| 初始资金(单标的) |
¥100,000.00 |
三、策略逻辑
策略名称:BIAS乖离率超跌反弹
{
"strategy_name": "BIAS乖离率超跌反弹",
"strategy_type": "quant",
"version": "1.0",
"meta": {
"category": "oscillate",
"level": "intermediate"
},
"components": {
"indicators": [
{
"id": "bias_1",
"type": "bias",
"name": "BIAS6",
"parameters": {
"period": 6
}
}
],
"conditions": [
{
"id": "cond_1",
"type": "cond_threshold",
"name": "BIAS超跌(<-8%)",
"parameters": {
"indicator": "bias_1",
"threshold_type": "below",
"value1": -8
}
},
{
"id": "cond_2",
"type": "cond_threshold",
"name": "BIAS过热(>8%)",
"parameters": {
"indicator": "bias_1",
"threshold_type": "above",
"value1": 8
}
}
],
"logics": [],
"signals": {
"entry": {
"id": "entry_1",
"type": "signal_entry",
"name": "超跌买入",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "cond_1"
}
},
"exit": {
"id": "exit_1",
"type": "signal_exit",
"name": "过热卖出",
"parameters": {
"trigger_condition": "cond_2"
}
}
},
"position_strategies": [
{
"id": "pos_1",
"type": "position_fixed",
"name": "固定仓位",
"parameters": {
"position_pct": 0.2,
"stop_loss_pct": 6,
"take_profit_pct": 14
}
}
]
}
}
四、统计显著性检验(Reality Check)
策略整体评级:D(低可信度(统计上未能显著优于随机)),基于 4372 只标的的横截面统计。
| 检验项 |
结果 |
统计量 |
结论 |
| 截面胜率(二项检验) |
44.10%(1928/4372) |
p=1.0000 |
未显著优于随机 |
| 平均收益(t 检验) |
-0.07% |
t=-1.49, p=1.0000 |
均值未显著大于零 |
| 平均夏普(t 检验) |
-0.12 |
t=-7.54, p=1.0000 |
风险调整收益不显著 |
收益分布(横截面分位数):
| P5 |
P25 |
中位数 |
P75 |
P95 |
尾部风险(最差10%均值) |
| -4.67% |
-1.89% |
-0.55% |
+1.88% |
+5.08% |
-5.18% |
五、标的收益排行
5.1 收益 Top 15
| 排名 |
标的 |
收益率 |
夏普比率 |
最大回撤 |
胜率 |
交易次数 |
| 1 |
300626.SZ |
+18.61% |
2.26 |
2.29% |
66.7% |
9 |
| 2 |
920438.BJ |
+17.98% |
2.20 |
1.73% |
69.2% |
13 |
| 3 |
300834.SZ |
+17.90% |
2.21 |
1.50% |
80.0% |
5 |
| 4 |
688158.SH |
+16.30% |
1.90 |
3.26% |
83.3% |
6 |
| 5 |
000691.SZ |
+15.47% |
3.08 |
1.28% |
57.1% |
7 |
| 6 |
920670.BJ |
+14.46% |
1.69 |
0.87% |
100.0% |
3 |
| 7 |
603778.SH |
+12.84% |
1.47 |
8.99% |
52.6% |
19 |
| 8 |
300716.SZ |
+12.44% |
1.94 |
1.87% |
83.3% |
6 |
| 9 |
300111.SZ |
+12.35% |
1.76 |
2.48% |
60.0% |
5 |
| 10 |
300131.SZ |
+12.08% |
2.11 |
1.25% |
100.0% |
3 |
| 11 |
000603.SZ |
+11.98% |
2.26 |
1.74% |
71.4% |
7 |
| 12 |
603322.SH |
+11.89% |
2.13 |
2.86% |
60.0% |
10 |
| 13 |
300721.SZ |
+11.75% |
1.66 |
3.39% |
50.0% |
8 |
| 14 |
000620.SZ |
+11.72% |
1.86 |
2.41% |
66.7% |
6 |
| 15 |
002141.SZ |
+11.44% |
1.89 |
2.83% |
75.0% |
4 |
5.2 收益 Bottom 10
| 排名 |
标的 |
收益率 |
夏普比率 |
最大回撤 |
胜率 |
交易次数 |
| 1 |
002731.SZ |
-17.21% |
-2.82 |
18.36% |
8.3% |
12 |
| 2 |
688121.SH |
-16.77% |
-2.86 |
16.77% |
0.0% |
8 |
| 3 |
600491.SH |
-14.67% |
-3.19 |
15.92% |
0.0% |
8 |
| 4 |
000078.SZ |
-14.42% |
-3.29 |
14.42% |
8.3% |
12 |
| 5 |
002514.SZ |
-12.26% |
-2.01 |
16.40% |
30.8% |
13 |
| 6 |
688496.SH |
-11.78% |
-1.10 |
22.44% |
30.8% |
13 |
| 7 |
688123.SH |
-10.68% |
-2.38 |
11.74% |
0.0% |
8 |
| 8 |
688286.SH |
-10.25% |
-3.16 |
10.25% |
0.0% |
10 |
| 9 |
920575.BJ |
-10.22% |
-1.50 |
11.67% |
22.2% |
9 |
| 10 |
300323.SZ |
-10.14% |
-2.29 |
10.61% |
11.1% |
9 |
六、风险提示与免责声明
本报告所有数据均基于历史行情的量化回测结果,不包含未来数据,亦未考虑极端行情、流动性冲击、政策变化等不可预见因素。历史业绩不代表未来表现,回测结果与实盘交易之间可能存在滑点、手续费、成交延迟等差异。本报告仅用于策略研究与教学交流,不构成任何投资建议,据此操作风险自负。